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DHMZ: Kraj babljeg ljeta

Posted by Sibenik Meteo on October 5, 2021 at 2:50 PM

Iznadprosječno toplo vrijeme na kraju rujna i početku listopada, koje u Hrvatskoj popularno nazivamo babljim ljetom ili Miholjskim ljetom, završit će tijekom srijede dolaskom vlažnog i hladnog zraka. Nerijetko će biti obilne oborine, a temperatura zraka će se u četvrtak 7. listopada osjetno sniziti, u unutrašnjosti ponegdje 10 do 15 °C u odnosu na one s početka tjedna, 4. i 5. listopada 2021. g.


Sa sjevera nam se približava visinska dolina praćena mlaznom strujom koja će sljedećih dana djelovati na vrijeme u Hrvatskoj (Animacija 1.).



Animacija 1. Apsolutna topografija (crne linije) i vjetar (strelice) na visinskoj izobarnoj plohi 300 hPa (na otprilike 9.5 km visine); područja s mlaznom strujom (brzina vjetra veća od 30 m/s) obojana su zelenim tonovima – animacija prognoza ECMWF modela za razdoblje od utorka 5. 10. 2021. u 18 UTC do nedjelje 10. 10. 2021. u 00 UTC.


Izražen frontalni sustav povezan s ciklonom nad sjeverom Italije (Slika 1.) prelazit će već noćas i sutra preko naših krajeva donoseći oblake i kišu, a mjestimice će biti i izraženih pljuskova s grmljavinom.


Slika 1. Prizemni tlaka zraka (hPa) – prognoza DWD modela za srijedu 6. 10. 2021. u 00 UTC.


Tijekom četvrtka će se nad Italijom i Jadranom dodatno intenzivirati ciklona pa se u Hrvatskoj očekuju još veće količine kiše, osobito na zapadu unutrašnjosti i na jugu zemlje (Slika 2.).

Slika 2. Akumulirana 24-satna količina oborine - prognoza ALADIN modela za četvrtak 7. 10. 2021.


Zbog obilne oborine moguće su lokalne bujične i urbane poplave, a naglo će porasti i vodostaj nekih rijeka, primjerice Kupe.


Budući da su još uvijek temperature i zraka i mora relativno visoke moguća je i pojava grmljavinskog nevremena s tučom te pijavica.


Nakon juga će zapuhati bura, podno Velebita od četvrtka olujna s orkanskim udarima, a vjetrovito će biti i u unutrašnjosti. Stoga će osim upozorenja za obilnu kišu i izražene grmljavinske pljuskove, biti i onih za vjetar. Razine upozorenja pratite ovdje.


Ova izražena promjena vremena uvod je u hladnije razdoblje koje će uz mjestimičnu kišu potrajati barem do sredine idućeg tjedna.



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